Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.013890 0.015745 0.017760 0.020114 0.022790 0.025738 0.029235
2025-04-20 0.011197 0.013794 0.016865 0.020767 0.025603 0.031408 0.038922
2025-04-27 0.009693 0.012635 0.016318 0.021275 0.027791 0.036088 0.047494
2025-05-04 0.008692 0.011866 0.016028 0.021902 0.030008 0.040842 0.056499
2025-05-11 0.007654 0.010871 0.015263 0.021717 0.031006 0.043956 0.063496
2025-05-18 0.006888 0.010135 0.014730 0.021734 0.032200 0.047353 0.071128
2025-05-25 0.006164 0.009364 0.014043 0.021415 0.032815 0.049898 0.077673
2025-06-01 0.005716 0.008947 0.013816 0.021729 0.034364 0.053920 0.086798
2025-06-08 0.005221 0.008401 0.013328 0.021570 0.035129 0.056753 0.094260
2025-06-15 0.004958 0.008191 0.013337 0.022184 0.037160 0.061745 0.105688
2025-06-22 0.004453 0.007537 0.012568 0.021438 0.036853 0.062839 0.110592
2025-06-29 0.004091 0.007088 0.012091 0.021130 0.037241 0.065104 0.117690
2025-07-06 0.003675 0.006513 0.011365 0.020342 0.036748 0.065850 0.122253
2025-07-13 0.003535 0.006413 0.011450 0.021002 0.038908 0.071503 0.136414
2025-07-20 0.003385 0.006279 0.011460 0.021515 0.040834 0.076884 0.150572
2025-07-27 0.003265 0.006187 0.011533 0.022149 0.043034 0.082959 0.166663
2025-08-03 0.003045 0.005887 0.011195 0.021963 0.043622 0.085979 0.176929
2025-08-10 0.002870 0.005659 0.010974 0.021979 0.044605 0.089843 0.189281
2025-08-17 0.002671 0.005366 0.010600 0.021656 0.044865 0.092265 0.198819
2025-08-24 0.002560 0.005240 0.010545 0.021974 0.046471 0.097578 0.215080
2025-08-31 0.002407 0.005015 0.010272 0.021813 0.047047 0.100770 0.226971
2025-09-07 0.002344 0.004971 0.010364 0.022434 0.049359 0.107877 0.248372
2025-09-14 0.002155 0.004645 0.009843 0.021680 0.048572 0.108124 0.253978